Risks and Odds (2)

Author

Andy Grogan-Kaylor

Published

November 9, 2024

1 Risk

Let’s think about risk:

\[\text{risk} = P(\text{event happened}) = \frac{\text{number of events}}{\text{number of events} + \text{number of non-events}}\]

2 Odds

The odds are the probability that an event happened divided by the probability that it did not happen

\[\text{odds} = \frac{P(\text{event happened})}{P(\text{event didn't happen})}\]

\[= \frac{\frac{\text{number of events}}{\text{number of events} + \text{number of non-events}}}{\frac{\text{number of non-events}}{\text{number of events} + \text{number of non-events}}}\]

which incidentally reduces to

\[= \frac{\text{number of events}}{\text{number of non-events}}\]

3 Visualize The Risk And Odds

Imagine an Event X. This event could be entering a program, exiting a program, or getting a diagnosis of a mental health or physical health condition.

Click on the table below and/or hover over the graph below to explore various scenarios.

3.1 Table

Table 1: Table of Risks and Odds

3.2 Visualization

Figure 1: Visualization of Risks and Odds